It’s all about turnout, and 2024 is trending down across the board in Philly and PA. But there’s still time to turn some of it around.

BY NIGEL THOMPSON ON JULY 10, 2024

With the 2024 primary elections in the rearview, the United States is hurtling towards an election that some are once again calling the most important in a lifetime. Although the roles are reversed from four years ago, the rematch between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump comes with similar heightened implications for issues such as abortion, control of the Supreme Court, and democracy as a whole, if you ask some pundits.

In the end, however, it is not the pundits who decide whether Biden stays in the White House or Trump returns, but the voters.

In a swing state like Pennsylvania, voters will once again face intense scrutiny, with both candidates expected to maintain a prominent presence on the campaign trail leading up to the general election on Nov. 5.

Low turnout even for a primary

If the early primary election returns are any indication, vying campaigns have their work cut out to convince voters not to abstain from yet another election that could define a generation, akin to 2020.

Under 30% of eligible primary voters across Pennsylvania cast a ballot on April 23, and in Philadelphia, not even 20% of all eligible voters cast a ballot.

However, primary election turnout in Pennsylvania often falls short of general elections because of the state’s closed primary system, which requires voters to be registered with a party to cast a ballot. In past primary elections, such as those in Philadelphia, this restriction has disenfranchised between 130,000 and 140,000 individuals not affiliated with the Democratic or Republican parties, cleaving the city’s overall turnout.

The voter registration fall-off

But when compared to voter registration numbers during the 2020 presidential election cycle, Philadelphia’s voter registration for the 2024 cycle lags well behind at this stage following the primary. In 2020, almost 39,000 more people were registered to vote, according to data from Philadelphia’s City Commissioners, and registration numbers are down even compared to the 2022 midterms, which saw around 34,000 more people registered in the city.  

Given Philadelphia’s status as a majority Black and Brown city, the dropoff could indicate that the same communities that carried Biden to victory in 2020 are not nearly as engaged this time around.

How Black and Latino communities won in 2020 and 2022

Four years ago, that engagement and support put Philadelphia at the center of the world as the votes counted at the Pennsylvania Convention Center quickly evaporated incumbent President Trump’s lead across the state. Ultimately, Biden secured victory in Pennsylvania by a margin of just over 80,000 votes.

The support from Black and Brown communities in Philadelphia and beyond was a defining narrative for both the 2020 and 2022 elections, for both parties. That support is poised to remain a significant factor in 2024.

In the same way that those 80,000 votes flipped Pennsylvania, votes from a majority Black Detroit also flipped Michigan. The same happened in Arizona, as Latino voters flipped the state in Biden’s favor in what was then a major upset. Biden is currently courting those same Arizona Latino voters on the 2024 campaign trail.

The biggest surprise of the 2020 campaign also came thanks to Black voters in Georgia behind the quiet cultivation and leadership of Stacey Abrams. The effort made Biden the first Democrat to win Georgia since Bill Clinton in 1992. Voters in Georgia would also send two Democrats to the Senate for the first time since 2003, giving them a one-vote advantage with Vice President Kamala Harris. 

Although Trump did not retain the presidency in 2020, his support from primarily Cuban, but also Venezuelan and Nicaraguan voters in and around Miami-Dade County saw him beat Biden by a bigger margin in the state than he beat Hillary Clinton by in 2016. It also flipped some House seats in favor of Republicans — sending Reps. María Elvira Salazar and Carlos Giménez to Washington over Democratic incumbents.

Those same Latino voters made even bigger gains in the House for Republicans two years later, during the 2022 midterms. They gained four seats in the House, eventually capturing the chamber from Democrats. The overwhelming support for Governor Ron DeSantis in his reelection campaign against Democrat Charlie Crist also catapulted him into the presidential conversation for 2024. In Texas, Latino voters also helped Rep. Monica De La Cruz become the first-ever Republican to represent Texas’ 15th congressional district along the U.S.-Mexico border. 

For Democrats in 2022, Black voters in Georgia once again strongly backed Senator Raphael Warnock to keep his seat, and Latino voters in Arizona came out in record numbers to stave off Kari Lake and keep a 2020 election denier from overseeing the state’s elections. In Pennsylvania, Black voters put up lopsided numbers to elect John Fetterman as the state’s second Democratic senator.

But even with these achievements in the last few election cycles, there are still areas where much more potential voting power can be unearthed.

A closer look: North Philadelphia’s Latino wards 

Taking North Philadelphia’s biggest Latino communities as an example, ¡Presente! analyzed voter registration and turnout data for the years 2020, 2022, and 2024 across seven voting wards (7, 19, 23, 25, 33, 42, and 43) in Philadelphia. These wards encompass neighborhoods such as Kensington (Ward 25 and Ward 33), Fairhill (Ward 7), Feltonville (Ward 33), Hunting Park (Ward 43), Juniata (Ward 33), Frankford (Ward 23), Norris Square (Ward 19) and Olney (Ward 42), among others.

Based on the  2020 data provided by the Philadelphia City Commissioners, of the over 80,000 votes that secured Biden’s victory in Pennsylvania that year, approximately 35,378, or roughly 44%, came from the difference in support Biden received over Trump in the seven wards analyzed by ¡Presente!. Biden’s victory in Philadelphia amounted to a margin of just over 471,000 votes.

Data analyzed from 2022 demonstrates even more untapped potential from these communities. That year, just 29.5% of registered voters across the seven analyzed wards cast a ballot, amounting to just around 28,000 votes out of a total of about 95,000 registered voters. It means some 67,000 people registered to vote did not.

Ward 7, comprising Fairhill and Franklinville just north, had the lowest turnout, with just 23%, or a little more than 3,000 ballots cast, and Ward 42, comprising most of Olney, saw the highest number of voters cast a ballot at 5,380. Part of Kensington and Port Richmond in Ward 25 had the highest percentage of registered voters cast a ballot at 35%, amounting to 4,628 votes.

The complete ward data from 2022 is as follows:

• Ward 7 (comprising Fairhill and Franklinville) — 23% turnout, or 3,044 votes cast of 13,234 registered voters 

• Ward 19 (comprising Norris Square and West Kensington) — 27% turnout, or 2,512 votes of 9,302 registered voters

• Ward 23 (comprising Frankford) — 33% turnout, or 4,912 votes of 14,885 registered voters

• Ward 25 (comprising part of Kensington and Port Richmond) — 35% turnout, or 4,628 votes of 13,222 registered voters

• Ward 33 (comprising part of Kensington, Harrowgate, Juniata Park, and Feltonville) — 26.5% turnout, or 3,650 votes of 13,775 registered voters

• Ward 42 (comprising Olney) — 32% turnout, or 5,380 votes of 16,811 registered voters 

• Ward 43 (comprising Hunting Park) — 30% turnout, or 4,039 votes of 13,463 registered voters

In 2024, much like the trend across the city, state, and country, voter registration is also down compared to 2022 in the seven wards analyzed by ¡Presente!.

The average dropoff is approximately 555 voters in each of the seven wards, with Ward 7 (Fairhill and Franklinville) taking the biggest hit and losing 889 voters, and Ward 25, comprising part of Kensington and Port Richmond, taking the least, down 166 voters compared to 2022.

The total number of lost registered voters across all seven analyzed wards is 3,891.

The complete data for the seven wards in 2024 is as follows:

• Ward 7 — -889 registered voters, from 13,234 to 12,345

• Ward 19 — -416 registered voters, from 9,302 to 8,886

• Ward 23 — -637 registered voters, from 14,885 to 14,248

• Ward 25 — -166 registered voters, from 13,222 to 13,056

• Ward 33 — -435 registered voters, from 13,775 to 13,340

• Ward 42 — -600 registered voters, from 16,811 to 16,211

• Ward 43 — -748 registered voters, from 13,463 to 12,715

How to buck the downward trend: Pay attention

There is, however, a short seven months between now and the general election, meaning some gains can be made to reverse the downward trend in North Philly’s Latino community and elsewhere in the city, across PA, and the country.

According to projections from Unidos, the nation’s largest Hispanic civil rights and advocacy organization, approximately 17.5 million Hispanics will vote in the 2024 presidential election. In a recent presentation of polling data around issues pertinent to Latinos nationwide, Clarissa Martinez De Castro, Vice President of Unidos’ Latino Vote Initiative, said one in five of those voters will be voting for the first time.

“Meaning outreach really is critical to make sure that these voters know the positions of those who are trying to win over their support,” said Martinez De Castro.

Election outreach has long been a sore spot in North Philly’s Latino communities. As Esperanza’s Rafael Alvarez Febo wrote in a Philadelphia Inquirer opinion piece last year following a mayoral election that saw only 13% of registered voters participate across Philly’s Latino-majority wards, the feelings of “apathy and inaction” run deep because of decades of unaddressed issues around quality of life issues such as crime, poverty, and housing.

The neglect has left many Latino voters there feeling “disconnected” from the entire process.

“When you talk to Latino voters, many will tell you that they are taken for granted,” wrote Alvarez Febo. “That their voices aren’t being heard and they feel locked out of politics.”

It’s the economy at the center

On a national scale, that outreach has only just begun to evolve past candidates who try to reach Latino voters through a single issue, according to Martinez De Castro.

“When and if they decided to reach out, often the only issue they thought they needed to talk to these voters about was immigration,” she said.

It would be a fatal flaw in North Philadelphia, where although there isn’t an insignificant Latino immigrant population in neighborhoods like Olney, Feltonville, and Kensington, among others,  the biggest population remains Puerto Rican, who have been U.S. citizens for more than a century.

Instead of immigration, Martinez De Castro said the economy has long been a top issue for Latino voters. Of those surveyed for Unidos’ latest polling data, 64% cited an economic-related issue as a top priority.

Gary Segura, a Latino political scientist and co-founder of Barreto Segura Partners Research, who helped Unidos with the polling, said the top three issues for those Latino voters surveyed were inflation and the rising cost of living, jobs and the economy, and health care. Rounding out the top five issues included crime and gun violence at four and the lack of affordable housing at five. Immigration came in sixth.

“It’s important to understand the economy is a lived experience,” said Segura.

Within inflation and the rising cost of living, 82% of respondents said food and basic living expenses have increased significantly, and more than three-quarters cited rising rent and other housing expenses.

Under jobs and the economy, more than half (58%) of those surveyed said their job didn’t pay enough or that they had to work a second job to make ends meet.

Segura said these viewpoints come even as the country is experiencing a historically low unemployment rate.

“That good news has a positive effect for many Latinos. But that's not the only news they're dealing with. They're also dealing with their personal experience,” he said.

Eric Rodriguez, Unidos’ senior vice president of policy and advocacy, said many Latinos are still on shaky economic ground following the COVID-19 pandemic.

“It's fair to say that a lot of the stimulus efforts that were put in place did reach the community, and for many saved them from from economic destitution,” he said. “But [it] did not fully get them out of a precarious situation.”

Rodriguez said they’ve come a long way, and are continuing to be an economic engine in the U.S., but inflation continues to eat away at any achieved wage gain.

These points will be on Latino voters’ minds come their time to cast a ballot in 2024.